Sunday, December 23, 2007

Pocket Queens Pre-Flop

In the continuing saga of my venture into MTT online, I have run across the problem of what to do with QQ pre-flop. Let me clarify first of all that this thought process refers to what to do with QQ pre-flop IF you are in a position to have a choice. Obviously if your stack has dwindled to anywhere near 10x BB, you are in no positon to be choosy. At that point, you are going to push with QQ pre-flop even if you are the third over-shover. But what about when you don't NEED to push? Can you lay QQ down pre-flop? Should you? If so, when?

Let me give some background first of all. Over the last week and a half or so that I have been playing MTT online, I have taken QQ all in pre-flop and run into KK or AA about seven times. In each of these cases I have asked myself...could this have been avoided? The most recent incident was yesterday and things went down like this: I was playing in the $15K Guarantee with Rebuys (which, if you look at my stats, you will see that I have been moneying in quite frequently...look up stats for any player at http://www.officialpokerrankings.com/ My screen name is BricktopUS) and I was well above average chip stack after the first break. The action was opened by another large chip stack two under the gun for 5x BB. This seemed like a weird size raise to me since there were no antes and he was opening. It was mucked around to me. I was in the Horn (the position right before the Cut Off) and I looked down and saw QQ. So naturally, I re-raised to about 3x his raise. Everyone mucked back to him and he shoved. So, at this point, if I muck the queens, I still have a slightly above average chip stack. Of course, if I double through him, I am a monster chip leader and can probably coast to the money quite easily. I thought about it for a long time and then called. He had KK and I was out of the tourney.

Now hindsight being what it is, it's really easy for me to look at the situation and speculate as to what the right play was. But what if he had had JJ or AK and my QQ had held? Then I wouldn't be so quick to question my decision.

I'm really in a quandry about this one so I went for advice to three poker buddies...Devo, Bear, and Happy Donkey. Devo noted in a reply to my email that he felt that there WERE certain situations in which you could fold QQ pre-flop, but probably only 1-3% of the time. Bear, on the other hand, pointed out that when you re-raise or call a re-raise all in pre-flop with QQ, you have to reasonalby expect to see AK a lot of the time (in which case you are still coin flipping) and sometimes you will see KK or AA. Of course AQ or JJ would be the best scenario, but those are probably going to greet you in that situation less than one third of the time. Bear further pointed out that if you are not in a situation in the tournament where you are ready to put your life on the line on a coin flip, you might want to consider laying down the QQ. Happy Donkey and I discussed it further and we came up with the additional observation that QQ really is CONSIDERABLY weaker than KK. I would probably never or only in some very rare, bubble type situation lay down KK pre-flop. Why? Because the only hand that beats it is AA. KK not only beats every other hand, it DOMINATES every other hand. QQ on the other hand is dominated by two hands...AA and KK, and it is coinflipping with another...AK. So we decided that AA and KK are in a league of their own, and there is a rather large gap there in strength between KK and QQ.

Ultimately, after seeking out everyone's advice on the topic, I reached the following conclusion: It seems to me that during MTT you have three distinct portions of the tourney...beginning, middle, and end. During the beginning portion, everyone has roughly the same amount of chips because only a few people have doubled up yet or become short stacked. As a result, you do not have a chip cushion to protect you from having to put all your chips in the middle on any given pot. You are going to have to risk your tournament life, most likely, at least once in this period in order to double up, which is usually critical. Also, perhaps more importantly, everyone else at the table is in the same mind set...they are all looking to double up and grow their chip stack, so they are more likely to put all their chips in with slightly less than pristine holdings. (I am speaking here only of MTT online with mid size buy ins...large tourneys online, and even more so live, play totally differently in the beginning stages from what I hear...much more conservative as no one wants to be knocked out in the first few rounds.) So at this point in online play, we should probably be willing to get all our chips in the middle pre-flop with QQ most of the time and take our chances...we need that opportunity to double up. Once we move to the next phase of the tournament, however, things change. During the middle phase, which I would define as beginning somewhere between 1.5 hours and 2 hours into the average MTT, stack sizes begin to spread out. There become noticeable groupings of short stacks, average, and chip leaders. During this phase, we are looking to grow our chips by picking on short stacks and using position plays. At this point, we want to gain as many chips as possible while facing as little resistance as possible. We are not so much concerned during the middle stages with our cards as we are with finding places to steel blinds and antes. During this middle phase, we should play much more cautiously pre-flop if we find ourselves in a raise, re-raise confrontation with another big stack. In the example I cited above, I definitely now believe that I should have laid the queens down. Finally, once we reach the money, we enter the late stage or end game of tournament play. At this point, blinds and antes tend to accelerate quickly and people start, once again, playing more aggressively. At that point, I think we go back to being willing to gamble a little in order to build enough chips to compete at the final table. I probably would be unwilling in most situations in late tourney play to lay down QQ pre-flop.

I would be very interested to hear anyone else's take on this topic.

Until Next Time...May your days be merry and bright, and may all the fishies at your table bite!

1 comment:

Devo said...

I didn't read much past "Horn", cause wtf its the hijack. Ayaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

Also, while reading on what I said and a little about what you were concluding it hit me that it's incredibly tourney/player dependent. Where you're at right now is different in play than the majors where folding AK/QQ pf is usually extremely wrong simply because everybody's so LAG in general.