Last night I played in a tournament at the Venetian (we chopped 1st through 5th) and experienced a situation where paying attention to a hand that I was not involved in reaped benefits for a hand that I was involved in.
We had been playing for around four hours and were down to two tables. We were playing short handed waiting for one player to bust so we could be down to the final table. There was a younger dude at my table who was playing good, solid, aggressive short handed poker. He raised frequently and put pressure on the other players, but didn't raise so often as to be considered a maniac. I mucked my hand under the gun and watched as the two players behind me mucked to him in the small blind. He looked at his cards and raised the bet to 2.5 times the big blind. The BB called. At this point, I put the young dude in the SB on any random two cards. I did not feel that he needed to have a legitimate hand to raise in that position.
The flop came down 3 3 2 with two spades. The SB looked at the flop and I thought that I detected something in his eyes that made me think he liked the flop. I can't really explain exactly what I saw, but I thought to myself, "hmm...this guy might have a three." Of course, you wouldn't normally put someone who raised pre-flop on a hand containing a three, but I think it's important to keep an open mind, and realize which of your opponents are capable of making which types of plays. Anyway, the SB checked the flop, which I took as a sign of strength given the texture of the board (had he had nothing, I think he would have bet into this flop, believing that his opponent would also have missed) and the BB checked behind him.
The turn came a seven and did not bring the flush. This time the SB bet out $1000 (the pot was around $3000) and the BB called. The river was another three and the SB bet out $3500. The BB mucked.
As the BB was mucking, I immediately spoke up loudly and said, "Quads!" Now I had been extremely quiet at this particular table so my speaking out at all sort of startled everyone. The SB balked a little, looked up at me and said, "What?" I decided to be firm and I said authoritatively, "You have quads." Not "I think you have quads," or "do you have quads?" but "You HAVE quads!" The player was obviously taken a little by surprise and he paused for a second, then turned over the case three. "How did you know that?" he asked. The player next to him said, "Wow, it's hard to put someone on quads." I didn't say a word...just smiled.
A little while later, I raised from the cutoff to pick up the blinds. The BB was the quad guy. He put a chip on his card, like he usually does when he is going to play his hand, and then looked up at me. Normally I am not a "starer," but in this case I looked right at him. I wanted him to think that I was capable of staring into his soul and seeing his cards. He looked at me, looked at his cards, looked at me, then uncovered his hand and mucked. He didn't enter a pot with me for the rest of the night. Perhaps it was partially coincidence, but I definitely got the feeling that this guy didn't feel comfortable with the fact that I had accurately and convincingly read his hand. Just goes to show that paying attention, even when you're not in a hand, can bring you benefits later on.
Until next time...may all your guesses come true!
Friday, October 26, 2007
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Diminishing Value of AK in Multi-Way Pots
The other night, Happy Donkey and I were playing in the $1/$2 No Limit game at Sunset Station when the following hand presented itself: Happy Donkey opened from early position for a $10 raise. A short stack in middle position pushed for $40 and then another reasonably short stack on the button pushed for about $105 total. Happy Donkey thought very briefly and then called the all-ins. He turned over A K off.
Later we discussed the hand and I wasn't thrilled with his call. I have heard a lot of discussion lately about how AK becomes less and less valuable the more people that enter a raised pot ahead of it. Now, of course, the first and most obvious reason for this is the possibility that AK is dominated by AA or KK. But let's set that possibility aside for a moment and focus only on the concept that the more people enter a raised pot, the more likely other Aces and Kings are to be "out" in other players' hands and not available to show up on the board. Barry Greenstein talks about this concept briefly in his book "Ace on the River" and it is worth considering.
I posted this quandary on cardschat.com in order to see what other players had to say about playing AK in a multi-way pot and one user, "zachvac" gave an awesome/informative analysis. I will quote it here in its entirety to preserve the cool train of thought:
This is a concept many people don't seem to understand. Of course it's good to isolate with a hand like AA because I want to be able to put opponents on a range of hands. But I would gladly go all-in PF with 9 other players with AA. Someone said the equity of hands goes down with each person entering the pot. That's false. The equity of AA goes up as each additional player enters the pot.
Let's pretend everyone has 100 chips for simplicity.
From pokerstove: (I'll round)AA vs. single random hand, 85%pot equity = 200*.85 = 170AA in 4-way pot, 64%pot equity = 400*.64 = 256AA in 9-way pot, 33.5%pot equity = 900*.335 = 301.5
Don't know about you, but I'll take the 301.5 chips over the 170 chips on average any day.
Now let's test it for AKo heads up, 65.5%pot equity = 200*.655 = 1314-way pot, 38%pot equity = 400*.38 = 1529-way pot, 18%pot equity = 900*.18 = 162So especially since this is a ring game, you would rather have AKo vs. a random hand 9-way than 2-way. Of course as mentioned this is a random hand. The hands that would push like that are not random hands.
I'm going to be a little bit liberal on the hands they may hold, say TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+.heads up: 51.64%pot equity = 200*.5164 = 103.283-way: 30.814%pot equity = 300*.30814 = 92.4224-way: 18%pot equity = 400*.18 = 72. So yes, if you have AKo and think the others are pushing with legitimate hand, not only does your equity decrease, but your ev becomes negative with a straight up PF all-in.
Pot odds may dictate a call anyway, let's look at the example given:
I was thinking of using pokerstove, but it won't give you how often one player will beat another heads up given that the third player has one of the predefined "legit" hands as well. If we consider the side pot ignoring the third hand (meaning if the results come out close we should fold, because we are boosting the value of our hand with every A or K the other person holds.He has to pay $88 to get in on the pot. He wins the side pot 51.64% of the time, $110 in that pot ($55 from him and bigger stack of the 2).110*.5164 = 56.804Main pot is $135 ($45*3), he wins that 30.814% of the time135*.30814 = 41.5989Total win = 56.804 + 41.5989 = ~98.4.He's paying $88 to win an average of $98.40.
Good play based on that criteria of hands, not adjusting to the lesser odds of winning the heads up.
I would love to hear everyone else's opinion on this...so post comments.
Later we discussed the hand and I wasn't thrilled with his call. I have heard a lot of discussion lately about how AK becomes less and less valuable the more people that enter a raised pot ahead of it. Now, of course, the first and most obvious reason for this is the possibility that AK is dominated by AA or KK. But let's set that possibility aside for a moment and focus only on the concept that the more people enter a raised pot, the more likely other Aces and Kings are to be "out" in other players' hands and not available to show up on the board. Barry Greenstein talks about this concept briefly in his book "Ace on the River" and it is worth considering.
I posted this quandary on cardschat.com in order to see what other players had to say about playing AK in a multi-way pot and one user, "zachvac" gave an awesome/informative analysis. I will quote it here in its entirety to preserve the cool train of thought:
This is a concept many people don't seem to understand. Of course it's good to isolate with a hand like AA because I want to be able to put opponents on a range of hands. But I would gladly go all-in PF with 9 other players with AA. Someone said the equity of hands goes down with each person entering the pot. That's false. The equity of AA goes up as each additional player enters the pot.
Let's pretend everyone has 100 chips for simplicity.
From pokerstove: (I'll round)AA vs. single random hand, 85%pot equity = 200*.85 = 170AA in 4-way pot, 64%pot equity = 400*.64 = 256AA in 9-way pot, 33.5%pot equity = 900*.335 = 301.5
Don't know about you, but I'll take the 301.5 chips over the 170 chips on average any day.
Now let's test it for AKo heads up, 65.5%pot equity = 200*.655 = 1314-way pot, 38%pot equity = 400*.38 = 1529-way pot, 18%pot equity = 900*.18 = 162So especially since this is a ring game, you would rather have AKo vs. a random hand 9-way than 2-way. Of course as mentioned this is a random hand. The hands that would push like that are not random hands.
I'm going to be a little bit liberal on the hands they may hold, say TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+.heads up: 51.64%pot equity = 200*.5164 = 103.283-way: 30.814%pot equity = 300*.30814 = 92.4224-way: 18%pot equity = 400*.18 = 72. So yes, if you have AKo and think the others are pushing with legitimate hand, not only does your equity decrease, but your ev becomes negative with a straight up PF all-in.
Pot odds may dictate a call anyway, let's look at the example given:
I was thinking of using pokerstove, but it won't give you how often one player will beat another heads up given that the third player has one of the predefined "legit" hands as well. If we consider the side pot ignoring the third hand (meaning if the results come out close we should fold, because we are boosting the value of our hand with every A or K the other person holds.He has to pay $88 to get in on the pot. He wins the side pot 51.64% of the time, $110 in that pot ($55 from him and bigger stack of the 2).110*.5164 = 56.804Main pot is $135 ($45*3), he wins that 30.814% of the time135*.30814 = 41.5989Total win = 56.804 + 41.5989 = ~98.4.He's paying $88 to win an average of $98.40.
Good play based on that criteria of hands, not adjusting to the lesser odds of winning the heads up.
I would love to hear everyone else's opinion on this...so post comments.
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Tooting My Own Horn
I usually spend the time in this blog analyzing hands that either myself or others were in and trying to figure out if they could have been played any better. In this case, I have to take a little bit of time to go over three hands that I played last night that made the difference between going home a big loser (which I would have been had I not made these plays) and going home a small winner.
I was playing $1/$2 No Limit at Mandalay Bay with Happy Donkey (who continued his world domination by winning another $800 last night.) The first hand in question was against a new player who had just sat down at the table. I had a J 5 off suit in the big blind and saw the flop in an unraised pot. The flop came down Q 5 2 rainbow. I checked and the new player bet out $15 from middle position as the second to last player to act. The button and small blind folded and I called. At that point, I called for the express purpose of putting in a bluff on the turn. On the turn (which was a 6) I checked, and he bet $25. I raised to $65 and he laid it down. One of the reasons that I was so happy with this play is that my read on him was truly a "pure" read. There was nothing abnormal about his betting pattern, I had never played with him before, and he had just sat down. It was a pure read that I didn't feel that he had a queen. So that was kind of cool.
The next hand was even better. I was dealt pocket Kings in my $4 straddle. There had been four limpers so I raised to $21. Three limpers called and the BB mucked. The flop came about the worst possible scenario for Kings... A J 7 ALL Hearts. I did not have the King of Hearts. I checked, one limper checked behind me, and Villain bet $50. The other limper mucked. At this point, I wasn't quite sure what I was going to do, I wasn't sure what he had, all I had to go on was that he had called me down a few hands ago and paid me off when I slowplayed top pair. So he might be out for revenge. I smooth called the flop and the other player mucked.
I was watching him for a tell and I noticed that he was staring pretty intently at the board as the turn was going to come off. (Staring at the board can often mean that someone is on a draw...but be careful with this, some people use it as a reverse tell.) I decided that I thought he was on a one card heart draw and made up my mind to bet if no heart came on the turn. The turn came a black nine and I pushed all in for about $200. He insta-mucked. I showed Happy Donkey my hand and as a result was called to show the whole table, which was fine, I was pretty stoked.
The last hand was a little stranger. Again, I was straddling and the pot was raised to $15 pre-flop by an English fellow from the cut-off. I called with an A 5 Diamonds and the Villain from last hand called. The flop came Q 5 3 ALL Spades. I checked, Villain checked, and the British guy looked at Villain and said, "You check?" Villain said "yes" and British guy then said "Check." The dealer started to burn and turn and the English guy plopped $35 out in the middle. Villain immediately objected, since English guy had already checked, and I agreed. The two of them started to get into it so floor was called. They made the correct decision that his check had to stand.
The turn then came the 2 of spades, bringing a one card spade flush. I checked, Villain immediately checked, and an obviously flustered Englishman checked behind us. The river came a Jack of Diamonds. I checked again and Villain bet out $40. Six months ago, this would have been an insta-muck for me, but I have since started to try to act on my reads more often, because they tend to be right. So I went into the tank and talked the hand out. I believed that if he had had a queen he would have bet the flop. I also felt that if he had had a spade, he would have bet the turn. So I reasoned that unless the Jack had "accidentally" hit him on the river, I might have him beat. I also considered the general weirdness that had surrounded the hand and the argument and thought that he might be trying to take advantage of the situation. Finally, I looked at him to try to pick up a tell one way or the other and he would not make eye contact and instead kept staring at the felt in front of him. I called and he threw his hand away face down. I showed my "hero call" and received the requisite "ooohs," "aaahhs," and "great calls" from the rest of the table.
I wanted to share those hands because I thought that they provided some worthy material, and if I pat myself on the back a little in the process...so be it. Everyone needs a good pat now and again!
I was playing $1/$2 No Limit at Mandalay Bay with Happy Donkey (who continued his world domination by winning another $800 last night.) The first hand in question was against a new player who had just sat down at the table. I had a J 5 off suit in the big blind and saw the flop in an unraised pot. The flop came down Q 5 2 rainbow. I checked and the new player bet out $15 from middle position as the second to last player to act. The button and small blind folded and I called. At that point, I called for the express purpose of putting in a bluff on the turn. On the turn (which was a 6) I checked, and he bet $25. I raised to $65 and he laid it down. One of the reasons that I was so happy with this play is that my read on him was truly a "pure" read. There was nothing abnormal about his betting pattern, I had never played with him before, and he had just sat down. It was a pure read that I didn't feel that he had a queen. So that was kind of cool.
The next hand was even better. I was dealt pocket Kings in my $4 straddle. There had been four limpers so I raised to $21. Three limpers called and the BB mucked. The flop came about the worst possible scenario for Kings... A J 7 ALL Hearts. I did not have the King of Hearts. I checked, one limper checked behind me, and Villain bet $50. The other limper mucked. At this point, I wasn't quite sure what I was going to do, I wasn't sure what he had, all I had to go on was that he had called me down a few hands ago and paid me off when I slowplayed top pair. So he might be out for revenge. I smooth called the flop and the other player mucked.
I was watching him for a tell and I noticed that he was staring pretty intently at the board as the turn was going to come off. (Staring at the board can often mean that someone is on a draw...but be careful with this, some people use it as a reverse tell.) I decided that I thought he was on a one card heart draw and made up my mind to bet if no heart came on the turn. The turn came a black nine and I pushed all in for about $200. He insta-mucked. I showed Happy Donkey my hand and as a result was called to show the whole table, which was fine, I was pretty stoked.
The last hand was a little stranger. Again, I was straddling and the pot was raised to $15 pre-flop by an English fellow from the cut-off. I called with an A 5 Diamonds and the Villain from last hand called. The flop came Q 5 3 ALL Spades. I checked, Villain checked, and the British guy looked at Villain and said, "You check?" Villain said "yes" and British guy then said "Check." The dealer started to burn and turn and the English guy plopped $35 out in the middle. Villain immediately objected, since English guy had already checked, and I agreed. The two of them started to get into it so floor was called. They made the correct decision that his check had to stand.
The turn then came the 2 of spades, bringing a one card spade flush. I checked, Villain immediately checked, and an obviously flustered Englishman checked behind us. The river came a Jack of Diamonds. I checked again and Villain bet out $40. Six months ago, this would have been an insta-muck for me, but I have since started to try to act on my reads more often, because they tend to be right. So I went into the tank and talked the hand out. I believed that if he had had a queen he would have bet the flop. I also felt that if he had had a spade, he would have bet the turn. So I reasoned that unless the Jack had "accidentally" hit him on the river, I might have him beat. I also considered the general weirdness that had surrounded the hand and the argument and thought that he might be trying to take advantage of the situation. Finally, I looked at him to try to pick up a tell one way or the other and he would not make eye contact and instead kept staring at the felt in front of him. I called and he threw his hand away face down. I showed my "hero call" and received the requisite "ooohs," "aaahhs," and "great calls" from the rest of the table.
I wanted to share those hands because I thought that they provided some worthy material, and if I pat myself on the back a little in the process...so be it. Everyone needs a good pat now and again!
Monday, October 8, 2007
Two Great Plays in Biloxi
Sorry for the delay in getting another post up, but we were having so much fun in Biloxi we didn't want to stop and blog. For five nights straight we played poker all night and slept most of the day. (Could anything be better?) I have to give huge props to the Beau Rivage Poker Room for taking such good care of us the whole time we were there. Not only did we receive the poker rate ($70 weeknights/$90 weekends) but they comped almost every meal we ate at the buffet, cafe, or table side service (our choice.) The games were juicy without being too overrun by donkeys. The floor was knowledgeable and the dealers were proficient and friendly. We're already planning another trip back to Mississippi!
In addition to doing some damage ourselves, we met some really interesting characters during our stay and witnessed some fabulous poker. One of the coolest hands involved a young, local rounder named Gabe who was easily the best player in the room. (In my humble opinion.) I wish that I had been watching the hand from the beginning so I could give a true blow-by-blow, but I can summarize by saying that Gabe raised pre-flop from late position and only one player called. I believe the flop was 9 - 10 - 5 rainbow. The other player bet into Gabe and he called.
There was also action on the turn but I can't remember who bet. The river card paired the board and the other player pushed all in for around $800. Gabe went into the tank and thought for almost three minutes before announcing "I call." The other player tapped his hand on the felt and said "good call." He flipped over the 7-8 for a busted straight draw. This wasn't in and of itself particularly noteworthy except that it was an awfully large amount to risk on a stone cold bluff on the river. (The pot was quite large before the river though, so the bet was not abnormally large in relation to the pot.) The amazing part was when Gabe flipped over his cards. He had the naked A-K...no pair. He had called over $800 cold because he put the other player on a bluff. I have to say, that was pretty damn impressive.
Now, I will note that I was skeptical after watching this play, wondering whether Gabe routinely called down large bets with less than premium holdings. If he did, and lost as often as he won, it would make his call a little less impressive. I was at the table with him quite frequently over the next few days and I watched him also make some very impressive lay downs when he was beat so that helped to strengthen my opinion of his play, but, in all fairness, I also watched him call down a larger than normal number of hands that he felt were bluffs. Sometimes he was right and sometimes not, but all-in-all I'd say his reads were more on than they were off.
Another interesting hand (which I was watching more closely) was especially fun because I felt that both players played it very well. The pot was raised pre-flop, but that was very normal for this game, and several players took the flop. The board came down three diamonds, the highest of which was a ten. The first player in our drama bet out the size of the pot (about $50) and another player called him. At this point, Milton, a local who is a solid player and a really fun guy, pushed all-in for around $400. The original better started thinking. He thought and thought and then called. The third player instantly mucked the lone queen of diamonds face up. Milton showed the naked ace of diamonds and the caller showed the K J of diamonds. Another diamond came off on the turn and Milton took down the pot. What impressed me about Milton's bet was that he knew it would be hard for a made flush to call his all-in push without the ace in their hand. He knew he would be calling a bet on the turn, so he gave himself the extra fold equity of pushing for a large amount on the flop. The caller, of course, made a great call with the King high flush and just happened to get sucked out on.
The hand reminded me of something that I need to improve on with my own game. If you are faced with a situation where you will be willing to call off all of your chips on a draw, either on that street or on the following street, it is usually better to raise the initial bet and give yourself one added way to win (fold equity) than it is to just call. This is also true on the river when you will be willing to call a bet, it is often better to bet out yourself. This assumes, of course, that you have a reasonably good read on your opponent and you are not likely to be bluff raised.
In addition to doing some damage ourselves, we met some really interesting characters during our stay and witnessed some fabulous poker. One of the coolest hands involved a young, local rounder named Gabe who was easily the best player in the room. (In my humble opinion.) I wish that I had been watching the hand from the beginning so I could give a true blow-by-blow, but I can summarize by saying that Gabe raised pre-flop from late position and only one player called. I believe the flop was 9 - 10 - 5 rainbow. The other player bet into Gabe and he called.
There was also action on the turn but I can't remember who bet. The river card paired the board and the other player pushed all in for around $800. Gabe went into the tank and thought for almost three minutes before announcing "I call." The other player tapped his hand on the felt and said "good call." He flipped over the 7-8 for a busted straight draw. This wasn't in and of itself particularly noteworthy except that it was an awfully large amount to risk on a stone cold bluff on the river. (The pot was quite large before the river though, so the bet was not abnormally large in relation to the pot.) The amazing part was when Gabe flipped over his cards. He had the naked A-K...no pair. He had called over $800 cold because he put the other player on a bluff. I have to say, that was pretty damn impressive.
Now, I will note that I was skeptical after watching this play, wondering whether Gabe routinely called down large bets with less than premium holdings. If he did, and lost as often as he won, it would make his call a little less impressive. I was at the table with him quite frequently over the next few days and I watched him also make some very impressive lay downs when he was beat so that helped to strengthen my opinion of his play, but, in all fairness, I also watched him call down a larger than normal number of hands that he felt were bluffs. Sometimes he was right and sometimes not, but all-in-all I'd say his reads were more on than they were off.
Another interesting hand (which I was watching more closely) was especially fun because I felt that both players played it very well. The pot was raised pre-flop, but that was very normal for this game, and several players took the flop. The board came down three diamonds, the highest of which was a ten. The first player in our drama bet out the size of the pot (about $50) and another player called him. At this point, Milton, a local who is a solid player and a really fun guy, pushed all-in for around $400. The original better started thinking. He thought and thought and then called. The third player instantly mucked the lone queen of diamonds face up. Milton showed the naked ace of diamonds and the caller showed the K J of diamonds. Another diamond came off on the turn and Milton took down the pot. What impressed me about Milton's bet was that he knew it would be hard for a made flush to call his all-in push without the ace in their hand. He knew he would be calling a bet on the turn, so he gave himself the extra fold equity of pushing for a large amount on the flop. The caller, of course, made a great call with the King high flush and just happened to get sucked out on.
The hand reminded me of something that I need to improve on with my own game. If you are faced with a situation where you will be willing to call off all of your chips on a draw, either on that street or on the following street, it is usually better to raise the initial bet and give yourself one added way to win (fold equity) than it is to just call. This is also true on the river when you will be willing to call a bet, it is often better to bet out yourself. This assumes, of course, that you have a reasonably good read on your opponent and you are not likely to be bluff raised.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Checking in the Dark
My friend and novice poker player (known here in the blog as Happy Donkey) asked me about a week ago what the point was of "checking in the dark." He'd seen people do this at the table and wondered what their reasons might be. I tried to explain to him that people have different reasons for doing this, but it's a hard concept to grasp without examples. Last night, as Happy Donkey and I were playing in a rollicking $2/5 No Limit game at the Beau Rivage in Biloxi, MS a perfect example arose of how to use a blind check to your advantage.
I was sitting in the BB with K 7 hearts and a new player to the table raised from middle position to $15. There were two callers after him and I called the additional $10 from the BB. The flop came down 7 - 5 - 7 rainbow. I checked and the original raiser bet $50. The other two players folded and I called the $50. At this point, I have to figure that he is going to be very suspicious of my flat call. There are very limited hands I could call him with that do not contain a 7, one of which would be if I was making a loose call with a straight draw. Because I wanted him to think that I was making a call with a draw and bet into me again on the turn if the draw did not come, I quickly checked in the dark after calling his bet on the flop. The turn came a deuce of diamonds bringing two diamonds to the board but not connecting with any draws I would have been on. My little charade worked and he bet into me again on the turn. Again I smooth called, but this time I did not blind check the river. I am planning on betting the river for value, but how much I can bet will be determined by the texture of the river card. The river came a 10 of diamonds and brought a runner-runner diamond flush. I decided to bet out $100 and intimate that I had made a diamond flush on the river. I believe that he thought I was bluffing with a busted straight draw and may have had only overcards when he called me. Of course because I won I did not ask to see the losing hand.
The point is that a blind check on the turn can often times help disguise your hand as people will almost always read a blind check for weakness and often as a drawing hand.
The games have been juicy here in Biloxi the last two nights so look for some good entries this week. Until then, may all your opponents cooperate in your devious plans.
I was sitting in the BB with K 7 hearts and a new player to the table raised from middle position to $15. There were two callers after him and I called the additional $10 from the BB. The flop came down 7 - 5 - 7 rainbow. I checked and the original raiser bet $50. The other two players folded and I called the $50. At this point, I have to figure that he is going to be very suspicious of my flat call. There are very limited hands I could call him with that do not contain a 7, one of which would be if I was making a loose call with a straight draw. Because I wanted him to think that I was making a call with a draw and bet into me again on the turn if the draw did not come, I quickly checked in the dark after calling his bet on the flop. The turn came a deuce of diamonds bringing two diamonds to the board but not connecting with any draws I would have been on. My little charade worked and he bet into me again on the turn. Again I smooth called, but this time I did not blind check the river. I am planning on betting the river for value, but how much I can bet will be determined by the texture of the river card. The river came a 10 of diamonds and brought a runner-runner diamond flush. I decided to bet out $100 and intimate that I had made a diamond flush on the river. I believe that he thought I was bluffing with a busted straight draw and may have had only overcards when he called me. Of course because I won I did not ask to see the losing hand.
The point is that a blind check on the turn can often times help disguise your hand as people will almost always read a blind check for weakness and often as a drawing hand.
The games have been juicy here in Biloxi the last two nights so look for some good entries this week. Until then, may all your opponents cooperate in your devious plans.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
It Was the Right Play, No It Wasn't, Maybe It Was
Two nights ago I was playing the $1/$2 No Limit game at Green Valley Station while waiting for a seat to open in the $2/$5 game. I bought in for $200 and had a little less than that in front of me when the following hand took place:
I raised to $12 from early position with K J of hearts. There were two callers after me, the BB called, and the player who had limped in under the gun also called. The flop came down J 10 8 rainbow. UTG bet $15 into a pot of $60. At this point, I put UTG on a drawing hand of some sort, most likely a combo draw with something like 10-9. The reason I immediately jumped to this conclusion is because I had seen him make these "blocker" type bets with drawing hands at least three other times since I had sat down at the table. When he had big made hands to protect he would bet the size of the pot, but when he had a drawing hand he would bet much less, and I had seen him fold to a raise when he made these $15 bets at least twice.
So I decided that with all the drawing possibilities out there I needed to protect my hand and figure out exactly where I was right there on the flop. I raised to $60. All the other players mucked and then, after a few seconds of consideration, the UTG player moved all in. Now at this point, I only had about $85 left and he had me covered. I went into the tank.
I tried to figure out what hands this player could have in this situation. I felt certain that he would have raised coming in UTG with pocket Js or 10s, so the only reasonable set possibility seemed to be 8s. It was certainly very possible that he had limped in with a hand like J-10 or J-8 and had flopped two pair. It also seemed possible that he had flopped a straight with a hand like Q-9, but I think he would have smooth called my raise with that hand and a rainbow board. I did not think that this particular player would push with a hand like QJ or KJ, but those were also possibilities. The final choices would be drawing hands. I did not think this player would push with middle or bottom pair and a re-draw so that narrowed the drawing hands down to J-9. Ultimately, I felt that his push was a strong move and indicated something that needed to be protected. I felt that it was much more likely that he had a set of 8s or two pair than any of the other options and in those cases I would be drawing really slim. I decided to muck my hand and after I did so he showed me the J-9 for top pair with the open ended re-draw.
Needless to say, I went over the hand again when I got home that night trying to decide if I had made the right play. I continued to believe that the most reasonable hands at that point were J-10, J-9, J-8, or 8s. Of those, three of them have me completely dominated (J-10, J-8, and 8s) and one of them I am approximately a 60/40 favorite. I had to decide that even though he did end up having the J-9, I had made a good lay down because I couldn't narrow down his possible hands enough to justify a call in that position.
Or could I?
About an hour later, something dawned on me. Remember on the flop when he bet $15 and I said that I immediately put him on a drawing hand? I had seen him make that move before and it was always with a drawing hand. Now granted, my data set was small as I had only seen his hand once and the other times he had folded before the river, but that was my first impression of the situation. Had I been willing to trust my read of his betting patterns, I could have narrowed his holdings down to the only drawing hand that it seemed possible he would push with... J-9. Yes, it would have been a sick read, but it's one I think I am capable of making. Had that been my conclusion, it would have been correct for me to call.
Next time I will blog from Biloxi where I will be playing at the Beau Rivage for five days. Until then, may all your hero calls make you look like a hero!
I raised to $12 from early position with K J of hearts. There were two callers after me, the BB called, and the player who had limped in under the gun also called. The flop came down J 10 8 rainbow. UTG bet $15 into a pot of $60. At this point, I put UTG on a drawing hand of some sort, most likely a combo draw with something like 10-9. The reason I immediately jumped to this conclusion is because I had seen him make these "blocker" type bets with drawing hands at least three other times since I had sat down at the table. When he had big made hands to protect he would bet the size of the pot, but when he had a drawing hand he would bet much less, and I had seen him fold to a raise when he made these $15 bets at least twice.
So I decided that with all the drawing possibilities out there I needed to protect my hand and figure out exactly where I was right there on the flop. I raised to $60. All the other players mucked and then, after a few seconds of consideration, the UTG player moved all in. Now at this point, I only had about $85 left and he had me covered. I went into the tank.
I tried to figure out what hands this player could have in this situation. I felt certain that he would have raised coming in UTG with pocket Js or 10s, so the only reasonable set possibility seemed to be 8s. It was certainly very possible that he had limped in with a hand like J-10 or J-8 and had flopped two pair. It also seemed possible that he had flopped a straight with a hand like Q-9, but I think he would have smooth called my raise with that hand and a rainbow board. I did not think that this particular player would push with a hand like QJ or KJ, but those were also possibilities. The final choices would be drawing hands. I did not think this player would push with middle or bottom pair and a re-draw so that narrowed the drawing hands down to J-9. Ultimately, I felt that his push was a strong move and indicated something that needed to be protected. I felt that it was much more likely that he had a set of 8s or two pair than any of the other options and in those cases I would be drawing really slim. I decided to muck my hand and after I did so he showed me the J-9 for top pair with the open ended re-draw.
Needless to say, I went over the hand again when I got home that night trying to decide if I had made the right play. I continued to believe that the most reasonable hands at that point were J-10, J-9, J-8, or 8s. Of those, three of them have me completely dominated (J-10, J-8, and 8s) and one of them I am approximately a 60/40 favorite. I had to decide that even though he did end up having the J-9, I had made a good lay down because I couldn't narrow down his possible hands enough to justify a call in that position.
Or could I?
About an hour later, something dawned on me. Remember on the flop when he bet $15 and I said that I immediately put him on a drawing hand? I had seen him make that move before and it was always with a drawing hand. Now granted, my data set was small as I had only seen his hand once and the other times he had folded before the river, but that was my first impression of the situation. Had I been willing to trust my read of his betting patterns, I could have narrowed his holdings down to the only drawing hand that it seemed possible he would push with... J-9. Yes, it would have been a sick read, but it's one I think I am capable of making. Had that been my conclusion, it would have been correct for me to call.
Next time I will blog from Biloxi where I will be playing at the Beau Rivage for five days. Until then, may all your hero calls make you look like a hero!
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