It Was the Right Play, No It Wasn't, Maybe It Was

Two nights ago I was playing the $1/$2 No Limit game at Green Valley Station while waiting for a seat to open in the $2/$5 game. I bought in for $200 and had a little less than that in front of me when the following hand took place:

I raised to $12 from early position with K J of hearts. There were two callers after me, the BB called, and the player who had limped in under the gun also called. The flop came down J 10 8 rainbow. UTG bet $15 into a pot of $60. At this point, I put UTG on a drawing hand of some sort, most likely a combo draw with something like 10-9. The reason I immediately jumped to this conclusion is because I had seen him make these "blocker" type bets with drawing hands at least three other times since I had sat down at the table. When he had big made hands to protect he would bet the size of the pot, but when he had a drawing hand he would bet much less, and I had seen him fold to a raise when he made these $15 bets at least twice.

So I decided that with all the drawing possibilities out there I needed to protect my hand and figure out exactly where I was right there on the flop. I raised to $60. All the other players mucked and then, after a few seconds of consideration, the UTG player moved all in. Now at this point, I only had about $85 left and he had me covered. I went into the tank.

I tried to figure out what hands this player could have in this situation. I felt certain that he would have raised coming in UTG with pocket Js or 10s, so the only reasonable set possibility seemed to be 8s. It was certainly very possible that he had limped in with a hand like J-10 or J-8 and had flopped two pair. It also seemed possible that he had flopped a straight with a hand like Q-9, but I think he would have smooth called my raise with that hand and a rainbow board. I did not think that this particular player would push with a hand like QJ or KJ, but those were also possibilities. The final choices would be drawing hands. I did not think this player would push with middle or bottom pair and a re-draw so that narrowed the drawing hands down to J-9. Ultimately, I felt that his push was a strong move and indicated something that needed to be protected. I felt that it was much more likely that he had a set of 8s or two pair than any of the other options and in those cases I would be drawing really slim. I decided to muck my hand and after I did so he showed me the J-9 for top pair with the open ended re-draw.

Needless to say, I went over the hand again when I got home that night trying to decide if I had made the right play. I continued to believe that the most reasonable hands at that point were J-10, J-9, J-8, or 8s. Of those, three of them have me completely dominated (J-10, J-8, and 8s) and one of them I am approximately a 60/40 favorite. I had to decide that even though he did end up having the J-9, I had made a good lay down because I couldn't narrow down his possible hands enough to justify a call in that position.

Or could I?

About an hour later, something dawned on me. Remember on the flop when he bet $15 and I said that I immediately put him on a drawing hand? I had seen him make that move before and it was always with a drawing hand. Now granted, my data set was small as I had only seen his hand once and the other times he had folded before the river, but that was my first impression of the situation. Had I been willing to trust my read of his betting patterns, I could have narrowed his holdings down to the only drawing hand that it seemed possible he would push with... J-9. Yes, it would have been a sick read, but it's one I think I am capable of making. Had that been my conclusion, it would have been correct for me to call.

Next time I will blog from Biloxi where I will be playing at the Beau Rivage for five days. Until then, may all your hero calls make you look like a hero!