Lost and Found

I was playing $1-2 No Limit at Santa Fe Station two nights ago and the following hand provided an excellent example of a situation where you DO NOT want to disguise the strength of your hand.

This was an extremely loose game so (as I often do at this limit) I was playing almost everything pre-flop unless there was a raise. Then I would evaluate my criteria on a case by case basis. I called $2 from late middle position with 7-10 off suit. The player immediately to my left raised to $10, the button called, both blinds called, and an early position limper called so I threw in the extra $8 as well.

The flop came 10 - 9 - 4 with two clubs. The SB checked and the BB bet $15 into the $60 pot. The early position limper called the $15. At this point, I had a decision to make. I considered the following factors: My hand is likely not going to improve on the turn. Given the weak bet by the big blind, I am inclined to put him on a draw of some sort and the same with the limper who called him. The player immediately after me is the original raiser and if he entered the pot with two big cards, I definitely don't want to flat call and give him odds to call for overcards. So my options at this point are to make a significant raise or to fold. I decide that there is a very good possibility that I currently have the best hand and that if I am wrong about the original raiser and he is holding a big pocket pair I will find out in short order. So I raise the pot to $60.

The original raiser thinks for a few seconds and then mucks. What happens next is what really surprised me...the button cold called my $60 bet. As soon as he did this, the SB mucked and the BB started hemming and hawing about whether or not to call. While the BB went through his considerations I tried to figure out what in the world the button had. Here was my thought process: At this point, if the button has a bigger 10 than I, or even two pair or a set, he would be very foolish not to raise. With open ended straight possibilities for such popular cards as 7 -8 and J - Q, with a flush draw on the board to boot, and with two early position better/callers, he needs to protect a made hand at this point. If he just flat calls my $60, he is giving both other players the odds to call with any straight or flush draw and even a hand as strong as a set would then be very vulnerable. Following this train of reasoning, I decided that it was most likely that the button held a big draw like a flush draw with straight possibilities and/or overcards. This would make it correct from a pot odds point of view to flat call my bet and his hand would not be hurt by other players also calling. So even though I wasn't at all sure about my read, that's what I decided was most likely.

The BB eventually mucked, but not before stating that he thought he was probably laying down the best hand at the moment. This led me to believe that he held a 10 and that seemed to only strengthen my thought that the button was on a large draw. The other limper also mucked and we saw the turn heads up.

The turn came a K of hearts. If I was right about what the button held, this card could be trouble, but it wasn't as bad as a club falling. I checked to see what he would do. (I'd like to note that my check here was admittedly pretty weak, but I was hoping to get some sort of help with my read when he bet or checked behind me.) The button came out and bet $50. Now this bet was extremely confusing for two reasons: 1. The pot at this point was over $200 and 2. I only had about $75 left in front of me. When he bet this amount I really struggled to figure out what was going on. Did he have JQ and he had just turned the nuts so his $50 bet was his way of enticing me to call? Did he not notice how little I had left? Did he miss his draw but saw the $50 as some sort of value bet? I couldn't figure him out, and because I couldn't figure him out I reverted to my original read. I decided to continue acting on my assumption that he had a big draw. Since the K only hit a small number of drawing hands and since my remaining stack was quite small in relation to the pot, I decided that I had to call him, and since I was going to call I might as well push all in, which I did.

The river came a 10 of clubs...double whammy. If he was on some sort of combo club draw, as I thought was most likely, he just hit it, and if he had a big 10, he still had the best ten. He hesitated and since I was the first in order, I turned over my hand. He made a disgusted noise and threw the 9 4 of diamonds face up into the muck. He had flopped bottom two pair and the river had, of course, killed him.

Now obviously I made an incorrect read on this guy, but I wanted to point out that it is the fact that he misplayed the hand badly that allowed me to win. After I raised to $60 on the flop he ABSOLUTELY NEEDED to protect his hand. Bottom two pair is always vulnerable and should be bet strong, but even more so when there are straight and flush draws on the board. What did he think that I had? What did he think that the other two players had? He ended up with the best case scenario for him, both other players mucked and I had only top pair. But even so, his bet of $50 on the turn was so weak that it gave me the odds to call him even with my limited outs. Think about it: On the turn I have outs to two tens, three sevens, and three kings. That's 8 outs...I need 4 to 1 on my money, which I was easily getting. My point is that had he shown strength on the flop by re-raising me, I would have folded and he would have taken down a nice pot.

Remember, slow playing and tricking players into thinking that you have a weaker hand than you do only works if your hand is strong enough to deserve to be slow played. Protect your weaker hands! Especially those that are unlikely to improve but have a significant chance of worsening.

Until next time...remember, if you always go in with the worst hand, no one can ever suck out on you!