Value Betting on the River

Yesterday (Halloween), Happy Donkey and I were playing at MGM in the $1/$2 game. We were basically killing time waiting for more friends to arrive before heading into the club. We were the only people in costume at the poker room. My costume was definitely "club attire" so you can imagine the kind of reaction that provoked. It was definitely an interesting (and profitable) experience.

Anyway, on to business. In the middle of our short session, the following hand transpired: There were about seven limpers into the pot, when I looked down in my BB and found pocket Jacks. I was definitely not interested in taking a flop seven handed with jacks so I decided to put in a decent size raise and try to thin the field. I made it $17 to go. Happy Donkey thought for a moment from UTG and then called. This started the usual "avalanche" and we ended up taking the flop six handed anyway. I had made up my mind that if I flopped an over pair I would push, but the flop came A A 9, two clubs. Obviously I checked. Happy Donkey then bet $35 into a pot that was about $104. Since we have spoken recently about sometimes betting out your huge hands instead of slow playing them, in order to mix things up, when he bet, I put him on the ace. He got one caller from middle position, everyone else mucked to me, and I, of course, also mucked.

The turn came a red five. This time Happy Donkey checked. Again I love this move. Makes it look like he was bluffing or betting a flush draw on the flop and now he is backing off. The other player bet $80 and Happy Donkey just called. At this point, I will reveal what HD had: A 9. He had flopped big full. In light of the strength of his hand and the relatively few hands that the other player could be betting with, I don't like his flat call on the turn. If the other player has a flush draw, he needs to min raise the turn in order to get more money from him, since if he misses his flush he is not going to bet or call on the river. If the other player has an ace (even one with a bad kicker) it will be difficult for him to lay it down to only a min raise and if the other player DOES have a decent kicker, a raise on the turn might just get him to push. But, as I said, HD flat called.

The river came off a red deuce and again HD checked. In my opinion, this is not the best play. At this point, the other player should also have narrowed HD down to having either an ace or a flush draw. The player would then know that if HD missed his flush draw, he will not pay off a river bet, so the other player is unlikely to bet the river unless he has a smaller full house. An AQ or AK would probably have raised pre-flop and even an AJ might be uncomfortable betting the river in that position. On the other hand, if HD bets out something reasonable (like $100), it is going to be almost impossible for another ace to fold.

As it was, the other player did have an ace...with a six kicker. After HD checked the river, the other player checked behind him. I believe that HD probably lost out on between $80 and $180 of potential profits by not optimizing his play on the turn and the river.

This illustration reminds me of something that I have been thinking a lot about lately and trying to improve within my own game as well: A chip that you don't extract when you have a winning hand is just as much of a loss as a chip you lose when you have a losing hand. I really need to be vigilant that I am making the most of my opportunities when I have big hands. I am very much coming to believe, "When in doubt...bet." Slow playing is valuable as a tool in our poker arsenals, but, in my opinion, it is overused by many people in about the same way that AK is overplayed.

Until next time, may all your opponents try to bluff at you when you have the nuts!